The recently concluded fourth round of discussions regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) ended in Addis Ababa without a consensus, plunging the region into continued uncertainty.
Despite the promise made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El Sisi to reach a resolution before the year’s end, the latest meeting proved futile. The negotiations held from December 17-19, 2023, failed to bridge the diverging interests of the three parties involved.
Ethiopia’s chief negotiator, Sileshi Bekele, stated during a press briefing that while some issues saw progress, disagreements persisted, particularly concerning the management of water during droughts as outlined in Article 6 of the negotiation document. This specific article became a major point of contention, leading to a significant setback in the negotiations.
The fundamental dispute arises from Article 6’s stipulation regarding the release of water during droughts, consequently affecting the reservoir level in Ethiopia. Sileshi emphasized Ethiopia’s commitment to its development goals and emphasized the need for a comprehensive review before reaching an agreement. However, the deadlock led to Egypt’s unilateral decision to discontinue the talks, as disclosed in the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs report.
Egypt, on the other hand, cited Ethiopia’s refusal to accept mutual compromise solutions, safeguarding the interests of all three countries as the cause for the failed negotiations. The Ethiopian government, however, accused Egypt of maintaining a colonial-era mentality and creating obstructions. Ethiopia denounced Egypt’s attempts to portray its positions in a misleading manner and highlighted the rejection of colonial-era water-sharing agreements.
Furthermore, there are speculations that Egypt may seek to shift the negotiations away from the African Union’s purview following the impasse, adding to the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the future of the talks.
With the construction of the GERD nearing completion, reaching a consensus on the dam’s operations becomes increasingly urgent. The lack of progress has led to Ethiopia’s construction progress reaching 94%, with concrete construction set for completion by June.
As the situation remains shrouded in doubt and secrecy, the failure of the recent negotiations has exposed the deep-seated differences among the involved parties, exacerbating the already complex geopolitical dynamics in the region.
