Global trade is anticipated to experience a 2.3% growth in 2024, a significant rebound from the stagnant pace witnessed in 2023. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report indicates that this projected growth aligns with the expected expansion in global output, signifying a partial normalization of trade patterns.
In 2023, global trade in goods and services exhibited minimal growth, estimated at 0.2%. This sluggish expansion, the slowest outside global recessions in the past 50 years, was predominantly attributed to the contraction in goods trade. The decline in key advanced economies and deceleration in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) led to the first sustained contraction in goods trade outside a global recession in the past two decades.
Furthermore, the report highlights the return of global supply chain pressures to pre-pandemic levels after reaching record lows in mid-2023, reflecting the stagnation in goods trade and the waning disruptions brought about by the pandemic. Although services trade initially rebounded from the pandemic, it slowed in the latter half of 2023.
The forecast for 2024 indicates the prospective expansion of goods trade while anticipating a reduced contribution of services to total trade growth, reverting to trade composition patterns observed before the pandemic. However, the responsiveness of global trade to global output is expected to remain subdued in the near term, influenced by restrained investment growth, as investment tends to be more trade-intensive than other types of expenditures.
Notably, the report projects the return of global tourist arrivals to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, although some countries may experience delayed recovery due to postponed reopening. However, the global trade growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 0.5 percentage points since June, reflecting weaker-than-expected growth in China and global investment. This downward revision positions the projected trade recovery for 2021-24 as the weakest following a global recession in the past fifty years.
In the context of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s total trade in the third quarter of 2023 amounted to N18,804.29 billion, with exports valued at N10,346.60 billion and total imports at N8,457.68 billion. Comparatively, total exports and imports recorded substantial increases when juxtaposed with the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter in 2022, signaling positive trade dynamics.
Looking ahead, the World Bank forecasts a slowing global growth trajectory for the third consecutive year, projecting a 2.4% global growth in 2024, slightly below the 2010s average. Developing economies are anticipated to grow by 3.9%, indicating a decline from the previous decade’s average, while low-income countries are expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.5%, albeit weaker than earlier projections.
