In West Africa, a region plagued by increasing violent conflict, a network of early warning and early response (EWER) systems is emerging. Multilateral organizations, governments, and civil society groups are working together to detect threats and provide crucial information to authorities. However, individual EWER systems face challenges such as data gaps, decision-making bottlenecks, and coordination breakdowns.
This report argues that connecting these individual systems through a network-of-networks approach can greatly improve outcomes for the people of West Africa and serve as a model for conflict-affected regions worldwide.
Between 2016 and 2021, various types of violent conflict in West Africa have risen due to economic and security challenges, leading to a lack of public trust in governance and competition for limited resources. Violent extremism, communal violence, political violence, and criminal violence have all increased, with projections indicating a further escalation in the coming years, resulting in severe humanitarian consequences.
For the past decade, institutions and organizations in West Africa have been working to prevent these violent patterns by establishing EWER systems at regional, national, and local levels. These systems aim to provide timely information on conflict risks to enable effective responses and prevent the spread of violence.
Despite their sophistication, individual EWER systems face common challenges such as data gaps, coordination issues, and information flow barriers. Research suggests that a network-of-networks approach can overcome these barriers and enhance conflict management and prevention efforts. By linking existing networks, the impact of these systems can be significantly increased.
This report provides examples of EWER systems operating at different levels in West Africa, demonstrating how a network-of-networks approach can address the shortcomings of individual systems. Supported by the United States Institute of Peace and conducted by the Fund for Peace, the research draws on data from eight early warning systems, social network analysis, and interviews.
Authors Nate Haken and Patricia Taft Nasri, along with Nikita Reece, highlight the potential for deeper linkages and synergies within the existing EWER ecosystem in West Africa. By leveraging a network-of-networks approach, the region can better anticipate and respond to conflict risks, ultimately fostering peace and stability.