Sudan’s Fragile Peace Process: Challenges and Prospects for Lasting Peace
The recent initiative led by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland to mediate a ceasefire in Sudan represents a crucial effort to address the conflict that has erupted since April 2023. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, with nearly 25 million people needing assistance and around 10 million displaced from their homes.
Historical Context and Current Challenges:
The conflict escalated due to disagreements over the integration of forces during a political transition to a civilian-led government and subsequent elections. The deteriorating situation in April 2023 was exacerbated by weak international positioning and the many deliberate attempts to manage Sudan’s future transition to serve specific regional and international strategic interests. The failure of the Sudanese civil political movement, its aspiration to grab power and control, and its service to regional and international agendas further contributed to the conflict.
SAF Preconditions and RSF Compliance:
The SAF has consistently maintained that any resumption of talks with the RSF depends on the latter implementing the preconditions agreed upon in the Jeddah talks. These preconditions include the RSF withdrawing from private and public properties they currently occupy and moving out of the areas they control to agreed locations outside the cities. Since the Sudanese government’s official rejection to join the peace process in Switzerland, internal divisions within the SAF leadership have surfaced, with some factions favouring negotiations and others staunchly opposing them.
Inclusion of Marginalized Groups and Civil Society:
The failure of current political actors, armed groups, and other entities that have dominated and hijacked the political scene in Sudan to address the root causes of the conflict has undermined their legitimate claim to representing the Sudanese. The peace process must be inclusive, ensuring marginalized groups have a voice. This inclusivity is essential for the legitimacy and sustainability of any peace agreement.
International Support and Accountability:
The success of peace talks requires robust mechanisms for implementation and monitoring. This includes clear and verifiable ceasefire terms, a strong monitoring mechanism with international observers, and sustained international support. The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine and UN Charter provisions could provide additional safeguards.
Prospects for Peace:
Despite the challenges, there are reasons for cautious optimism. The involvement of major international players like the US and Saudi Arabia, who have significant influence in the region, could provide the necessary diplomatic pressure to drive the parties towards a resolution. However, the complexity of the ceasefire agreement and the need for comprehensive implementation, monitoring, and the inclusion of various civil forces remain substantial hurdles.
The peace process in Sudan stands at a critical crossroads. The success of the ceasefire talks will depend on addressing deep-seated mistrust, ensuring justice and accountability, and involving marginalized groups in the political dialogue. The international community’s role in providing sustained support and enforcing compliance through frameworks like R2P and the UN Charter is crucial. As the talks progress, the world is holding its breath, hoping that this fragile ceasefire will pave the way for lasting peace, rather than another tragic chapter in Sudan’s history.
Author Bio:
Elhadi Abdalla Mohamed is a Sudanese international development professional with over 25 years of experience developing and managing humanitarian and development programs within complex emergencies in conflict and disaster zones in East Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East. He is also the founder and director of the California-based Center for Global Peace and Development.
