Ethiopia Warns of Uncharted Waters in Somalia as Regional Tensions Escalate
The African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is set to begin, marking a new chapter in the region’s complex dynamics. The mission, which will feature troops from Burundi, Uganda, and Egypt, has raised concerns in Ethiopia, which has issued a warning about the potential for destabilization in the region.
The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement, saying, "Ethiopia cannot remain idle while other actors take measures to destabilize the region." The statement was seen as a veiled warning to Egypt, with which Ethiopia is engaged in a bitter dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.
The tension between Ethiopia and Egypt has been escalating, with Egypt signing a defense pact and military cooperation protocol with Somalia in August. The pact was signed during a visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Cairo, where he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
The signing of the deal was followed by the landing of at least two Egyptian Air Force cargo planes carrying weapons and equipment for Somali forces. Egypt has thus consolidated its military presence in Somalia, a country that is also at odds with Ethiopia due to its military naval agreement with the secessionist region of Somaliland.
Under the agreement, Ethiopia has pledged to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign and independent state, a move that is unacceptable to the Somali government. The government has said it will not approve of Ethiopia’s participation in the AUSSOM mission unless Addis Ababa withdraws from its understanding with Somaliland.
Meanwhile, Egypt has started collaborating with Turkey, another major sponsor of Somalia, to secure its interests in the region. The two countries have signed military and naval agreements, which will allow Turkey to guarantee the security of Somalia’s coasts and exploit its offshore resources.
According to sources, Egypt is preparing to deploy up to 10,000 soldiers to Somalia as part of the AUSSOM mission, which is set to officially start in January 2025. The development has raised concerns about the potential for further escalation in the region.
As the situation in Somalia continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how the various actors will navigate the complex web of alliances and rivalries in the region. One thing is certain, however: the stakes are high, and the consequences of failure could be severe.
