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Somalia’s Security Concerns: Islamic State Doubles in Size, Al-Shabab Exploits Diplomatic Disputes

The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) has expressed concerns over the rapid growth of the Islamic State (IS) in Somalia, with the group’s numbers approximately doubling in the past year. According to AFRICOM commander Gen. Michael Langley, the increase in IS fighters in northern Somalia is a worrying trend, particularly as the group’s foreign fighter presence is expected to increase.

Langley declined to provide the exact number of IS fighters in Somalia, but noted that the group’s growth has been significant. Previous estimates put the number of IS fighters in north Somalia at around 200, but Langley stated that the group has now grown "twofold" in the past year.

The increase in IS fighters comes as the al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabab has exploited diplomatic disagreements between Somalia and Ethiopia to raise its recruitment numbers. Al-Shabab has been back at high numbers of between 12,000 to 13,000 fighters, thanks to strong financing and heavy recruitment efforts.

The political rift between Somalia and Ethiopia has also affected counter-terror cooperation between the two countries, with Langley stating that Somali operations with Ethiopia have been "limited." However, he expressed hope that the two countries can settle their differences and work together effectively to clear out al-Shabab.

In addition to the growth of IS and al-Shabab, Somalia must also contend with the threat of Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. Langley expressed concerns that the Houthis may attempt to collaborate with al-Shabab, which could have significant implications for the region.

The Houthis have already targeted more than 80 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza began, and Langley worries that squeezing the strategic Gulf of Aden could further hinder the free flow of commerce and affect the global economy.

The situation in Somalia is complex, with multiple threats and challenges facing the country. However, with the support of international partners like the United States, Somalia is working to address these challenges and build a more stable and secure future.

Sources:

• VOA
• AFRICOM
• Somali government
• U.S. defense officials
• Houthi militants