Former US President Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House has introduced a wave of uncertainty over ongoing trade discussions between the United States and Kenya, initially reignited by President Joe Biden. Biden’s administration launched a strategic trade and investment partnership with Kenya in 2021, replacing formal negotiations previously initiated by Trump in 2020.
In recent months, officials in Washington and Nairobi have accelerated efforts to finalize this agreement before the upcoming US presidential election, targeting a potential conclusion as soon as next month. The talks have focused on ten key areas, including agriculture, digital trade, climate action, and trade facilitation.
Yet it remains unclear whether Trump, if reinstated, would revert to his original trade agenda, proceed with Biden’s established framework, or halt the agreement altogether. Trump, alongside Kenya’s then-President Uhuru Kenyatta, initially launched trade discussions in February 2020, aiming for a bilateral agreement within two years. However, talks stalled after the November 2020 US presidential election.
With a possible leadership shift in the United States, the uncertainty typical of new administrations looms, as they often reassess or reverse their predecessors’ policy directions. Kenyan President William Ruto, a critical ally to Washington, reinforced Kenya’s relationship with the US through a state visit to the White House in May, the first such visit by an African leader under Biden’s term.
While Kenya is not among the top US trade partners globally, it stands out as one of Africa’s most dynamic economies and ranks as the second-largest beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), excluding oil. The US regards Kenya as a key strategic ally in the region, benefiting from significant American security and foreign assistance.