The Nigerian economy is projected to have grown by around 3.7 percent in the first half of 2025.
The growth was driven by improved business conditions and increased crude oil production.
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) disclosed this in a report compiled by S&P Global and released on Tuesday.
According to Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research, West Africa, at the bank, the estimated 3.7 percent year-on-year GDP growth aligns with expectations for annual growth of 3.5 percent.
“Insights from the monthly PMIs and crude oil production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission suggest an economy that grew by an estimated 3.7 percent y/y in H1 2025, supported by higher crude oil production and improved growth in manufacturing and services, while agriculture continues to lag its long-term average growth rate of 3.6 percent,” it said.
This comes as the World Bank reaffirmed its projection that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, higher than the 3.4 percent recorded in 2024, despite shifts in global trade dynamics.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s projection is lower than the Central Bank of Nigeria’s estimate of 4.17 percent and the ambitious 5.5 percent GDP growth forecasted by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in January.
In May Nigeria’s inflation dropped to 22.97, and the interest rate stood at 27.50 percent.
According to Oni, “Given that inflation is expected to remain softer compared to the 2024 average, interest rates are likely to be lower this year and next; we expect a 150–200 bps rate cut in 2025 and a 200–250 bps cut in 2026.”
