Nigeria is poised to see a surge in crude oil exports in the coming months as Indian refiners pivot away from Russian supplies under geopolitical pressure. According to trade sources cited by Reuters, India’s largest state-owned fuel processors, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL), have purchased over 22 million barrels of non-Russian crude for September and October deliveries. The shift follows intensified U.S. efforts to discourage nations from importing Russian oil amid ongoing sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict.
India, which had emerged as a major buyer of discounted Russian crude following Moscow’s 2022 invasion, notably halted these imports in late July after renewed pressure from Washington. The move has reshaped global trade flows, pushing Indian refiners to diversify supplies. IOC and BPCL, once regulars in the spot market, had largely avoided it over the past two years in favor of cheaper Russian barrels. Now, their return adds momentum to Nigeria’s export prospects.
In a recent tender, IOC secured 2 million barrels of U.S. Mars crude—a high-sulfur grade sold by BP at $1.5–$2 per barrel above September’s Dubai benchmark—alongside 2 million barrels of Brazilian oil and 1 million barrels of Libyan crude. These deals were facilitated by European trader Petraco and Totsa, the trading division of TotalEnergies, though pricing details for the latter cargoes remain undisclosed. This follows IOC’s prior purchase of 8 million barrels from the Middle East, U.S., Canada, and Nigeria via tenders last week.
Meanwhile, BPCL negotiated 9 million barrels for September arrivals, including 2 million barrels of Nigerian crude, 3 million barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Murban, and quantities from Angola and the U.S. Combined, the two refiners’ spot acquisitions represent approximately 6% of India’s total crude processing volumes recorded in May.
Trade analysts underscore improving arbitrage conditions as a key driver, noting that transporting Atlantic Basin crude to Asia has become more economically viable. This comes as Brent-Dubai price spreads narrow, making non-Russian grades more competitive. While neither IOC nor BPCL publicly confirmed the deals, industry insiders attribute the silence to standard confidentiality practices in commodity trading.
The resurgence of Indian demand aligns with broader market recalibrations, as nations comply with Western sanctions while securing affordable energy. For Nigeria, long challenged by fluctuating export revenues, the increased offtake offers a timely boost. However, the long-term impact hinges on whether New Delhi sustains its reduced reliance on Russian supplies amid evolving geopolitical dynamics and global oil price trends.
