Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as markets weighed mixed signals from U.S. inventory reports and geopolitical developments, including a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders. Brent crude futures hovered at $66.12 per barrel by mid-morning West Africa Time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped marginally to $63.11. Both benchmarks had closed lower the previous day, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of fresh data and global political shifts.
Investor attention centered on the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, set for release later in the day, which follows conflicting signals from industry figures. Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a 1.52 million-barrel build in crude stocks last week, though gasoline inventories declined while distillate supplies edged higher. Analysts surveyed by Reuters, however, project the EIA’s figures will reveal a modest draw of 300,000 barrels. A confirmed drop could signal that peak summer fuel demand—traditionally spanning late May to early September—has begun to wane, prompting refiners to scale back operations.
Geopolitical risks also loomed as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, a conflict that has roiled energy markets since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The White House expressed optimism about a potential ceasefire agreement, sparking speculation about eased sanctions on Russian oil exports, which have historically tightened global supply and propped up prices.
Meanwhile, conflicting production forecasts added complexity to market dynamics. Reports released Tuesday by OPEC and the EIA projected a rise in global oil output this year, though both agencies anticipate a decline in U.S. production by 2026. The EIA’s monthly outlook highlighted a record U.S. crude output of 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, driven by improved well efficiency, but cautioned that lower prices could curb production the following year. OPEC, in its report, revised its 2026 global demand forecast upward by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd, leaving its 2025 estimate unchanged.
The interplay of these factors—inventory fluctuations, geopolitical negotiations, and long-term supply-demand shifts—left traders in a holding pattern. While rising global production and potential peace talks weighed on prices, lingering supply concerns and seasonal demand trends provided a floor. Market participants now await clearer signals from the EIA report and the Trump-Putin dialogue, which could determine near-term price trajectories in an increasingly volatile energy landscape.
