The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a cornerstone of US-Africa relations since 2000, is set to expire on September 30, with prospects for extension or renewal looking increasingly slim. The act has allowed for duty-free entry of specific African products into the American market, promoting economic growth and reform in the region. According to the US Trade Representative Office, AGOA has bolstered economic growth, improved US economic relations, and encouraged respect for the rule of law and alignment with US foreign policy interests.

As the 2025 end date approaches, concerns about renewal have grown. A last-ditch effort to extend the deal failed in December due to Congressional partisan differences. Currently, there are uncertainties surrounding AGOA’s future, with no serious negotiations having begun. Recent headlines suggest that AGOA stands little chance of renewal.

Despite this, supporters of the act remain hopeful that a compromise can be reached. The US Chamber of Commerce, the Corporate Council of Africa, and the American Apparel & Footwear Association are among the business organizations working towards renewal. African diplomats and businesses have also stepped up their lobbying efforts, highlighting the benefits of AGOA for both the US and African economies. Madagascar’s Ambassador to the US, Solo Andry Lantosoa Rakotomalala, emphasized that the potential lapse of AGOA poses an immediate threat to millions of dollars in investment and hundreds of thousands of livelihoods across Africa and the US.

However, others argue that AGOA has outlived its usefulness, particularly given the current US administration’s emphasis on tariffs. The Executive Order issued on July 31 eased tariffs on several African countries but imposed new tariffs on others. In the event that AGOA is extended, it is likely to be used as a tool to pressure African countries to align with US foreign policy objectives.

A more pragmatic perspective suggests that AGOA could emerge in a modified form, with a short-term extension of one to two years to allow for more extensive negotiations. This could potentially open the door to a compromise that has little impact on the global American trade balance. As the expiration date approaches, the future of AGOA remains uncertain, with significant implications for US-Africa trade relations and economic development in the region.