The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on the country’s exports. The new projection predicts a 6.6 % growth rate for this year, down from the previous estimate of 6.8 %. This reduction reflects a normalization of export growth after a strong performance in the first half of the year. According to a Reuters report, the revised forecast is significantly lower than the Vietnamese government’s official target of 8.3‑8.5 % growth.
The bank noted that, as an export‑oriented economy, Vietnam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and weakening demand from major trading partners. Trade‑policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence. The United States, Vietnam’s largest export market, imposed a 20 % tariff on Vietnamese goods starting 7 August, with transshipments from third countries facing a 40 % levy. Oxford Economics reported that Vietnam’s goods export values contracted 3.6 % in August from the previous month. However, government data showed that August exports rose 14.5 % from a year earlier and were up 2.6 % from July.
The pace of export growth is expected to continue easing because of tariff effects, though the electronics sector may provide some resilience. The World Bank projects that economic growth will ease to 6.1 % in 2026 before accelerating to 6.5 % in 2027, supported by a recovery in global trade and Vietnam’s continued appeal as a competitive manufacturing base. Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính warned that global trade tensions, geopolitical and military conflicts are affecting production and supply chains, and are increasing pressure on inflation and the exchange rate.
Despite these challenges, domestic activity remains strong. Consumption and government‑led investments are expected to continue supporting growth even as export growth eases further. The revised forecast highlights the difficulties faced by Vietnam’s export‑driven economy amid global trade tensions, and it remains to be seen how the government will respond to sustain economic growth and maintain its competitive edge in the global market.
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