Mexico has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025, citing uncertainty and aggressive trade policies from its main trading partner, the United States. The finance ministry has lowered its outlook to 0.5‑1.5 percent, down from the 1.5‑2.3 percent range projected in April. This revision aligns more closely with market expectations and the Bank of Mexico’s forecast of 0.4‑0.6 percent growth. The Mexican economy, the second largest in Latin America, expanded 1.2 percent in 2024.
The United States has imposed tariffs on Mexican products, including automobiles and steel, threatening bilateral trade that exceeded $800 billion last year. Mexico’s finance ministry attributes the reduced growth forecast to these trade policies, which have created uncertainty and affected the country’s economy.
Despite the current challenges, the government predicts the economy will grow between 1.8 and 2.8 percent in 2026, above market and central‑bank expectations. The finance ministry expects resilience to stem from strong household consumption, domestic investment, and Mexico’s strategic position in global value chains. The central bank, however, forecasts growth of 1.1 percent.
In addition to the revised growth outlook, the finance ministry announced that 3 percent of GDP will be allocated in 2026 to social programs that will directly benefit almost 82 percent of Mexican families. A cash‑transfer program for vulnerable sectors is a cornerstone of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s economic plan. These measures aim to support vulnerable groups and promote economic growth as Mexico navigates the challenges posed by U.S. trade policies.
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