A major farming disaster has struck communities in Asa Local Government Area of Kwara State, Nigeria, due to a failed weather forecast by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet. The failed prediction has severe implications for food security, rural livelihoods, and farmer confidence.
According to a statement by Kwara Must Change, a pro-democracy and civic advocacy group, NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction had projected rainfall in Asa to begin on May 7 and end on November 18, providing farmers with nearly 195 days of rainfall to cultivate their crops. However, the actual rainfall pattern was significantly different, with early showers in May followed by an abrupt stop in June, no rainfall in July, and only two isolated instances in August. Consistent rains only resumed in September, resulting in a three-month drought during the peak growing season.
The unprecedented rainfall pattern has destroyed crops across Asa, wiping out the investments of farmers who had already spent heavily on land preparation, seedlings, and fertilizers. Many farmers are now counting their losses, describing the current season as “the worst in living memory.” The group, which monitors governance and social development in Kwara, has expressed alarm at the scale of devastation and accused NiMet of undermining the farmers it was meant to support.
The forecasting failure has been described as a disaster of national importance, with far-reaching consequences for the rural economy of Kwara, where agriculture is a vital sector. The group has demanded an urgent explanation from both NiMet and the Federal Government, insisting that farmers deserve accountability and corrective measures to prevent a repeat of the crisis. Additionally, the group has called on the Kwara State Government to provide immediate relief packages for affected farmers in Asa, warning that delayed support could result in food shortages and worsening poverty.
The situation highlights the importance of accurate weather forecasting for agricultural planning and the need for effective support systems for farmers. The failure of NiMet’s forecast has not only affected the livelihoods of farmers but also poses a threat to food security in the region. As the situation continues to unfold, it is essential for the relevant authorities to take prompt action to address the concerns of the affected farmers and prevent similar disasters in the future.
