Nigeria’s upstream oil sector has experienced a significant turnaround, with crude oil losses from theft and metering issues dropping to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily losses in July stood at 9,600 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest recorded figure since 2009.

The NUPRC attributed this progress to its efforts to eliminate crude losses across Nigeria’s oilfields and pipeline infrastructure. Between January and July, total crude losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 bpd over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.

In comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels lost at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. The NUPRC noted that losses were cut by 50.2% in the first seven months of 2025, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period. This represents a dramatic 94.57% drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels.

The commission has adopted a balanced mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to tackle oil losses. On the kinetic front, it collaborates closely with security agencies, operators, and communities. On the non-kinetic front, it implements strategic regulatory measures to close systemic loopholes. One key initiative is the metering audit across upstream facilities to ensure accurate measurement of production and exports. To further strengthen control, the NUPRC has approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to combat oil theft.

The progress made in reducing crude oil losses is significant, with a reduction of 35.56 million barrels compared to the 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021. The NUPRC’s efforts have led to a steady decline in losses, from 37.6 million barrels in 2021 to 2.04 million barrels in the first seven months of 2025. This improvement is a result of the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, which has enabled the commission to make steady progress in reducing crude oil losses.