Nigeria’s upstream oil sector has experienced a significant turnaround, with crude‑oil losses from theft and metering issues dropping to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily losses in July were 9,600 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest figure recorded since 2009. Between January and July, total crude losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 bpd over the seven‑month period. This marks a clear departure from the high‑loss years that have long plagued the industry.
For the entire 2024 calendar year, losses amounted to 4.1 million barrels, a daily average of 11,300 bpd. In the first seven months of 2025, the NUPRC reported a 50.2 % reduction in losses, with only 2.04 million barrels lost. Compared with 2021, when Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 bpd, this represents a dramatic 94.57 % drop.
The commission has adopted a balanced mix of kinetic and non‑kinetic strategies to tackle oil losses. On the kinetic front, it collaborates closely with security agencies, operators, and communities. On the non‑kinetic front, it implements strategic regulatory measures to close systemic loopholes, including a metering audit across upstream facilities to ensure accurate measurement of production and exports. To further strengthen control, the NUPRC has approved 37 new crude‑oil evacuation routes to combat theft.
Overall, the reduction amounts to 35.56 million barrels compared with the 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021. The steady decline—from 37.6 million barrels in 2021 to 2.04 million barrels in the first seven months of 2025—reflects the impact of the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021, which has enabled the commission to make consistent progress in reducing crude‑oil losses.
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