Poland’s decision to close its border with Belarus has significantly disrupted a crucial rail freight corridor between China and the European Union. The affected route normally handles approximately €25 billion in freight traffic annually. All cargo, including time-sensitive shipments such as medicine and food, is currently blocked.

According to Polish officials, the closure is related to the recent Russian-Belarusian ‘Zapad-2025’ military exercises, which were held in neighboring Belarus from September 12-16. Warsaw has described the maneuvers as “very aggressive” and conducted close to the Polish border. The Zapad drills, staged by Moscow and Minsk roughly every four years, were attended by international military delegations, including from the US and India.

The closure exacerbates existing tensions over tariffs, subsidies, and security concerns that have long impacted EU-China trade ties. Beijing has sought to maintain the rail freight corridor as a “flagship project” in its cooperation with Poland and the EU. However, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to Warsaw for talks with his Polish counterpart, Radoslaw Sikorski, did not result in an agreement to reopen the border.

Sikorski, a noted Russia hawk, stated that “the logic of trade” is being replaced by “the logic of security.” The Polish foreign affairs spokesman, Pawel Wronski, cited this as the reason for the border closure. China, according to Warsaw, made no direct demands to reopen the border.

The European Commission is monitoring the potential fallout from the closure, noting that it is too early to provide further details. Former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency, Piotr Krawczyk, suggested that the US may be supporting Warsaw’s decision, as it aligns with Washington’s pressure on the EU to impose extra tariffs on China over its purchases of Russian energy.

The disruption to the rail freight corridor is likely to have significant economic implications, particularly given the importance of this route for EU-China trade. As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how the affected parties will navigate the challenges posed by the border closure. The European Commission’s ongoing monitoring of the situation highlights the potential for further developments in this critical trade corridor.