Nigeria’s revenue is under threat as oil prices have fallen for the third consecutive day, sparked by doubts over the effectiveness of Russia sanctions and the possibility of an output increase by OPEC+. The decline is expected to impact crude‑dependent economies, including Nigeria, which had benchmarked a $75‑per‑barrel crude oil price in its 2025 budget. As of Wednesday, Brent crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.11%, to $64.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.12%, to $60.08. West Texas Intermediate futures also dropped, despite reported declines in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks.
Market sources indicate that crude inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels, gasoline inventories dropped by 6.35 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 4.36 million barrels. The price drop has been attributed to concerns over the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors and the possibility of an OPEC+ output increase. Russia has offered to continue supplying energy to its partners despite the sanctions. Many Indian refiners have paused new orders for Russian oil while awaiting clarity from the government and suppliers, although state‑run Indian Oil has said it will not stop buying Russian oil as long as it complies with sanctions.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has also been affected. A labor strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria caused a drop in September 2025 production to 1.581 million barrels per day, comprising 1.39 million barrels per day of crude oil and 191,373 barrels per day of condensates. The federal government has announced plans to push for an increase in the country’s OPEC+ quota from 1.5 million barrels per day to 2.06 million barrels per day.
The decline in oil prices poses a significant threat to Nigeria’s revenue, which is heavily reliant on crude oil sales. In the first half of 2025, Nigeria generated ₦5.21 trillion from the sale of crude oil, gas, and related activities. However, total crude oil and condensate output between January and August was 406.84 million barrels, an 18.27 % shortfall against the 500.58 million barrels projected in the budget for the period. As the global oil market continues to evolve, Nigeria’s revenue prospects remain uncertain.
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