Guinea-Bissau’s Military Seizes Power, Casting Doubt on Democracy
In a move that has raised concerns about the state of democracy in West Africa, army generals in Guinea-Bissau seized power on November 26, 2025, just a day before the scheduled announcement of the presidential election results. The military suspended the electoral process, citing a destabilization plot by unnamed politicians and drug lords. General Horta Inta-a, head of the presidential guard, was sworn in as the “transitional” leader, while Ilídio Vieira Té, a close ally of former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, was appointed prime minister.
The timing of the coup and Embaló’s connection to the new government have led opposition groups and some West African leaders to suggest that the takeover was staged to facilitate Embaló’s continued rule by proxy. This development has significant implications for the region, which is already grappling with a deepening crisis of democracy. Guinea-Bissau’s history of coups, with five failed attempts and three successful ones since 1974, has created a “coup trap” where poverty and instability are mutually reinforcing.
The Sahel region, which includes Guinea-Bissau, has become a hotbed of coups and terrorism, with nearly three-quarters of all coup attempts worldwide since 2020 occurring in this area. The region accounts for less than 10% of Africa’s population and the number of states globally. The recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger were driven by terrorist insurgencies, Russian disinformation, and anti-French sentiment. In contrast, the coup in Guinea-Bissau appears to be driven by political opportunism following a flawed election.
Guinea-Bissau’s coup-prone history is characterized by a pattern of instability, with seven of the nine nations that have suffered successful coups since 2020 having experienced a successful coup within the previous 20 years. The country’s slide into autocracy has been marked by a decline in electoral contestation, voter participation, and executive constraints. The Varieties of Democracy project has classified Guinea-Bissau as an “electoral autocracy,” where the government is elected through unfair and fraudulent means and rules in an authoritarian manner.
The international community has condemned the coup, with the United Nations, African Union, and Economic Community of West African Nations calling for a return to constitutional rule. However, the effectiveness of these efforts remains uncertain, given the recent examples of other coup-hit nations in the region. The new government’s promise of democratic elections in a year should be treated with skepticism, as similar promises have not been kept in other recent coup cases in the Sahel. The situation in Guinea-Bissau highlights the need for the international community to take credible steps to support the restoration of democracy and prevent further instability in the region.
