Botswana’s Elephant Population Under Threat from Flawed Hunting Programme

A recent report by Elephants Without Borders (EWB) has sparked controversy over the management of Botswana’s elephant population, one of the largest in Africa. The study, led by Dr. Mike Chase, reveals that the country’s hunting programme, reinstated in 2019, is based on outdated models and incomplete data. The research shows that the population has remained stable at around 130,000 elephants in the north, contradicting government claims of overpopulation.

The EWB report highlights the increasing mortality rate among elephants, with a significant rise in carcass ratios, indicating deaths from poaching, drought, and disease. Between 2023 and 2025, at least 120 elephants were poached, mostly adult males. The selective targeting of older bulls, which carry large tusks, poses a significant threat to the population’s genetic diversity and social structure.

The report challenges the government’s justification for hunting quotas, which are based on a 2011 model that assumes steady population growth without accounting for density dependence. The model also relies on unsupported assumptions about elephant emigration to neighboring countries. The EWB study argues that the current quota system is unsustainable and could lead to a decline in the number of older bulls, which play a crucial role in elephant society.

Climate change and drought are also affecting the elephant population, with severe dry seasons projected to occur in up to 40% of years by 2080. This could lead to increased conflict between elephants and communities, as well as disease transmission. The report notes that hunting concessions are functioning as “sink” areas, where elephants die faster than they can be naturally replaced.

The EWB report’s findings have significant implications for Botswana’s tourism sector, which contributes 12% of the country’s GDP and supports over 100,000 jobs. The decline of large bulls, a major draw for photographic tourists, could undermine the industry’s sustainability. Dr. Chase warns that increasing extraction through hunting will not solve the country’s economic or ecological problems and may accelerate the depletion of resources.

The Botswana government’s response to the report remains to be seen. However, the study’s findings emphasize the need for evidence-based policy and a re-evaluation of the country’s hunting programme to ensure the long-term conservation of its elephant population. With Botswana holding roughly a third of Africa’s remaining savannah elephants, the country’s approach to elephant management has significant regional and global implications.