Cocoa prices have dropped sharply in 2025 after nearly two years of soaring, but chocolate prices remain high ahead of the festive holiday season. Despite the decline in cocoa prices, chocolate manufacturers have not reduced their prices due to the high costs incurred during the period of high cocoa prices.

Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest suppliers of cocoa pods, account for over half of global production. The geographic concentration of plantations in West Africa makes the cocoa market vulnerable to weather patterns and tree diseases. Most cocoa cultivation is carried out by smallholder farmers, who have seen their incomes rise in recent years due to government support and improved harvests.

Cocoa prices reached a record high of $12,000 per tonne in December 2024 due to supply-side issues, including aging trees, diseases, and low fertilizer usage. However, prices have since retreated to around $6,000 per tonne. The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to improved harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast, where farmers have benefited from higher incomes and government support.

The high cost of cocoa has forced chocolate manufacturers to reduce the cocoa content in their products or increase prices. Some manufacturers, such as McVitie’s, have rebranded their products as “chocolate flavor” due to the reduced cocoa content. Despite the decline in cocoa prices, chocolate prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term, as manufacturers had already factored in the high costs of cocoa into their pricing.

The decline in cocoa prices may, however, lead to lower chocolate prices in the future, particularly for products such as Easter eggs and chocolate bunnies. Analysts note that the market remains volatile, and it is too early to comment on specific changes regarding prices. The current slump in cocoa prices may be too late to affect Christmas assortments, but it could have an impact on future production costs.

The cocoa market is expected to remain volatile, with prices influenced by weather patterns, diseases, and government policies. As the demand for chocolate remains high, manufacturers will need to adapt to the changing market conditions to maintain their profit margins. The decline in cocoa prices is a welcome relief for manufacturers, but it may not immediately translate to lower prices for consumers.