Approximately 20 million barrels of Nigerian oil slated for loading in December and January remain unsold, according to a Reuters report that cites two traders. The surplus stems from stiff competition from abundant, cheaper alternative supplies. This glut is part of a broader oil‑market oversupply that has depressed international futures prices and pushed Brent crude below $60 a barrel, its lowest level since May.
Analysts say the overhang of West African cargoes reflects an emerging global crude‑supply surplus in the first quarter. Victoria Grabenwoger of analytics firm Kpler noted, “The overhang of West African cargoes partly reflects the broader global crude supply surplus emerging in Q1.” Angola’s December–January programs also contain several cargoes, and estimates suggest that the combined overhang for both countries could reach 40 million barrels. Such a large volume of unsold oil is unusual for the current month, given that the West African trade cycle typically operates two months ahead.
The slow start to the February trading cycle can be attributed to the availability of these unsold cargoes, even though Angola’s loading schedule and term nominations have already been released. OilX analyst Francisco Gutierrez explained that the market softness is partly seasonal and partly due to shifting buying patterns driven by freight costs and alternative supply options. He observed that Angolan January trade is 20 % behind its long‑term average pace because China, the world’s largest commodities buyer, has turned to cheaper or nearer alternative grades.
Supplies from the Middle East are displacing medium and heavy West African grades in Asia, as lower official selling prices in January and shorter voyages give those grades a competitive edge. India’s oil imports from Russia have remained resilient despite tightening Western sanctions, further eroding demand for medium‑heavy West African crudes. Light‑to‑medium‑density West African grades also struggle to compete with supplies from Argentina and Brazil.
Nigeria faces additional marketing challenges because the 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day Dangote plant will undergo maintenance in January, reducing its imports and leaving more Nigerian oil to sell. As the global oil market continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how Nigeria and other West African producers will adapt and find buyers for their excess oil.
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