Nigeria external reserves to hit $51 billion in 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has predicted that the country’s external reserves will increase to $51.04 billion in 2026, up from $45 billion in 2025. This projection is contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026, which was published by the CBN. The report attributes the expected growth in external reserves to reduced pressure in the foreign exchange market, anticipated increases in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.

According to the CBN, Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $45.45 billion as of December 29, 2025, following a period of steady accretion. The bank expects the growth in external reserves to be further supported by the expansion of the Dangote refinery’s capacity, which is projected to increase from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 700,000 bpd in 2026 and eventually to 1.4 million bpd in the medium term.

The CBN also expects the foreign exchange market to remain stable in 2026, with reforms aimed at enhancing efficiency and transparency, narrowing the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates. The bank anticipates that improved domestic oil refining capacity will reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports, further supporting the stability of the foreign exchange market.

The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations that the economy will stabilize further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate, and the foreign exchange market remains stable. The CBN projects that headline inflation will decelerate to 12.94% in 2026, driven by a combination of factors, including continued stability in the foreign exchange and energy markets, the lagged effect of previous rate hikes, and improved policy coordination.

The bank notes that strategic policy decisions taken in 2025 improved price and exchange rate stability, boosted capital inflows, and strengthened the resilience of the financial system. The CBN stresses the need for harmonized fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms, and tailored guidelines to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum. The bank will continue to deploy appropriate tools to anchor expectations, foster financial stability, and promote confidence in the economy.

On the fiscal front, the outlook for 2026 is broadly positive, buoyed by sustained improvements in domestic crude oil production and the phased implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025. However, the CBN notes that downside risks persist, including a sustained decline in global oil prices and elevated debt service obligations. The bank will sustain its regulatory oversight and commitment to ensuring that policies are timely, data-driven, and supportive of a stable macroeconomic environment.