The International Crisis Group has identified the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea as one of the top 10 global conflicts to watch in 2026. The think tank warns that a clash between the two nations could plunge the Horn of Africa into chaos, particularly with Sudan already embroiled in conflict. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki have been trading accusations, with Abiy blaming Eritrea for supporting anti-government militias and Isaias accusing Ethiopia of seeking to reconquer Eritrea’s ports.
The roots of the current tensions date back to 2018, when Abiy came to power and formed an alliance with Isaias, who had previously fought alongside the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the 1974-1991 civil war. However, the alliance was short-lived, and war broke out between Ethiopia and the Tigrayan leadership in 2020. Eritrean troops fought on the side of the federal government, and a cessation of hostilities deal was signed in November 2022.
Since then, Addis Ababa has been fighting a shadow war with both Asmara and the Amhara community. Abiy accuses Eritrea of supporting an insurgency by the Amhara militia, known as Fano, as well as Oromo Liberation Army rebels. The situation has been further complicated by infighting within the Tigrayan leadership, with one faction forging ties with Asmara and forcing the other faction to flee to the Ethiopian capital.
The conflict has the potential to escalate into a regional conflagration, with Sudan’s war adding to the dangers. Asmara backs the Sudanese army, while Addis Ababa has maintained neutrality but could step up support for the Rapid Support Forces in the event of a new conflict. The last full-fledged war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, from 1998 to 2000, resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, and a repeat of such a conflict would be devastating for the region.
Despite the risks, there are reasons to hope that Ethiopia and Eritrea will not go to war. Neither side can predict the outcome of a costly conflict, and Ethiopia’s leadership wants to maintain support from the International Monetary Fund, which new hostilities would imperil. Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, which played a key role in securing the Pretoria agreement, should shuttle between the two capitals to emphasize the dangers of conflict. Other countries with influence in the region, including the US, China, and the European Union, should also reinforce this message to prevent a ruinous conflict.