Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol persisted between November 2024 and November 2025, despite contributions from the Dangote Refinery, according to an analysis of data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. The country imported an estimated 12.96 billion litres of petrol, while local refineries supplied about 7.39 billion litres, resulting in a total petrol availability of roughly 20.35 billion litres.
Over the 13-month period, imported petrol accounted for approximately 63.7% of total supply, while local production covered around 36.3%. This highlights the scale of Nigeria’s continued exposure to external supply chains and foreign exchange pressures. The analysis was based on monthly average daily supply figures converted into total monthly volumes, providing a comprehensive overview of imports and domestic production.
In the initial months, Nigeria’s petrol consumption was largely driven by imports. For instance, in November 2024, imports accounted for about 66.8% of the total supply, while domestic refineries supplied roughly 33.2%. However, in January 2025, local refineries contributed an estimated 592 million litres, raising their share to 43.6%, while imports declined to 56.4%.
The following months saw fluctuations in supply levels, with local production reaching its highest monthly contribution in February 2025, accounting for 47.4% of total supply. Nevertheless, the gains recorded in the first quarter of 2025 proved difficult to sustain, with imports dominating the supply in subsequent months. The volatility of local refinery output was evident, with domestic production falling back to 32.4% in May 2025.
Despite the challenges, a modest recovery in domestic contribution was recorded in August and September 2025. However, the period closed with a dramatic spike in November 2025, when total supply surged to roughly 2.15 billion litres, with imports accounting for 72.8% of the total. The data indicates that while domestic refining capacity demonstrated the ability to meet as much as 47% of national petrol demand at its peak, Nigeria has not yet achieved a stable transition away from imports.
The heavy reliance on imported petrol continues to expose the economy to foreign exchange volatility, logistics risks, and global price shocks. Sustaining and scaling domestic refining output is crucial to achieving energy security. The Nigerian government and stakeholders must prioritize investments in local refining capacity to reduce the country’s dependence on imported fuel and mitigate the associated risks.
