Nigeria Inflation Data To Be Normalised Amid Projected Spike

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to ‘normalise’ Nigeria’s inflation data for December 2025 due to a projected spike in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This decision was made public during a virtual stakeholders’ engagement convened by the NBS and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group.

According to the NBS, the expected increase in inflation is driven by technical base effects resulting from the recent rebasing of the inflation series, rather than changes in economic fundamentals. The rebasing exercise, which adopted 2024 as the new base year, has introduced a significant artificial spike in the inflation rate. Statistician General of the Federation and CEO of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that base effects are a common feature of statistical practice, particularly in index-based measurements.

The NBS has projected that the December spike stems from the rebasing of the CPI, which has introduced over 400 new products into the CPI basket and removed more than 200 items. To address this issue, the NBS will apply a normalisation process, as provided for in the CPI Manual 2020, to remove the artificial base effect and present a more accurate picture of inflation dynamics.

The normalisation process involves using the average CPI from January to December 2024 as the base period, rather than December 2024 alone. This adjustment will affect published figures for January to December 2025, but the impact is expected to be minimal. The NBS has assured stakeholders that it will clearly communicate the adjustment and its effects on previously published data.

The decision to normalise the inflation data has been made in consultation with technical partners, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria. The NBS has reaffirmed its commitment to sustained stakeholder engagement, methodological rigour, and clear communication to strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s official statistics.

The normalisation of inflation data is significant, as it will provide a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economic performance. The NBS has emphasized the importance of regular rebasing of macroeconomic indicators to avoid unusual distortions. With the base effect expected to no longer apply from January 2026, the NBS will continue to monitor and report on Nigeria’s inflation trends, providing critical data for policymakers and stakeholders.