The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has acknowledged the positive impact of Nigeria’s non-oil sector on its economic growth in the second half of last year. In its Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC noted that Nigeria’s economy showed resilience, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.
According to the report, Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025, down from 1.436 million barrels per day in November. OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December. The report also highlighted that cooling inflation, a firmer naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has kept its policy rate unchanged at 27% in December, citing its commitment to securing low and stable inflation. However, the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, has signaled that there may be cuts in the interest rate if inflation keeps cooling. Edun revealed that a sustained decline in inflation would create room for additional rate cuts, helping to reduce borrowing costs and easing the government’s debt servicing burden.
Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish two separate inflation figures for December due to changes in its consumer price index (CPI) methodology. The development comes as Nigeria’s inflation data is closely monitored by the Central Bank of Nigeria as it transitions toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. The NBS will take the unusual step of publishing both inflation figures to ensure transparency, with one figure reflecting economic fundamentals and the other capturing the inflated outcome resulting from the rebasing methodology.
The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI has significantly distorted the December inflation reading, with the apex bank targeting a slowdown in inflation to around 13% by next year. The publication of the two inflation figures is scheduled for release on January 15, and it is projected to show an “artificially spiked” inflation rate of 31.2% for December, compared with 14.5% recorded in November. The move aims to provide a clearer picture of the country’s economic situation and inform monetary policy decisions.
