Nigeria’s revenue from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is expected to increase significantly in 2026 due to a surge in global output. According to analysts, a boost in global supply will ease constraints that have been in place since the 2022 Ukraine war, potentially driving demand from top importers such as China and India.
This year marks the start of a large wave of supply that is expected to last until 2029, which could lead to lower prices and increased demand from emerging economies. “2026 is expected to be a transitional year for the LNG market,” said Kpler in a report. The market is expected to shift from tightness to ample availability, with sufficient supply to meet winter demand and storage needs, particularly in Europe.
Nigeria’s LNG exports saw a significant rebound in late 2025, hitting a five-year high in December with 2.1 billion cubic meters exported. The country’s improved gas supply and plant utilization have positioned it for a major surge in gas exports, with new facilities like Nigeria LNG Train 7 coming online. Nigeria’s proven gas reserves stand at over 210 trillion cubic feet, making it Africa’s largest holder and a globally significant player.
The global LNG market is expected to see an increase in supply, with estimates suggesting at least 35 million metric tons of new capacity coming online in 2026. This could lead to a 10% year-on-year increase in global LNG supplies, with forecasts ranging from 460 to 484 million metric tons. The additional supply is expected to put pressure on global prices, with analysts predicting a range of $9.50 to $9.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026.
Asia’s LNG demand is forecast to recover by 4% to 7% in 2026, driven by China and India. New contracts and lower prices are expected to spur additional spot purchasing, fuel switching, and stockpiling. Europe is also expected to play a significant role in absorbing the new LNG supply, with imports forecast to rise by 22 million tons in 2026.
The increase in global LNG supply and demand is expected to have a significant impact on the market, with prices and trade flows likely to be affected. As the market continues to evolve, Nigeria is well-positioned to take advantage of the growing demand for LNG, with its significant reserves and strategic location. The country’s ability to increase its gas exports will depend on its ability to improve its infrastructure and address challenges such as theft and infrastructure constraints.
