Russian and US negotiators have agreed to expedite new nuclear arms control discussions following meetings in the United Arab Emirates this week. The development comes after the expiration of the New START treaty, the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms pact, which for over 50 years imposed verified limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.
The New START treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, capped each nation at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. Its lapse in February 2023 means there are now no legally binding constraints on the size or composition of US or Russian nuclear forces. While Russia has indicated a willingness to continue observing the treaty’s limits on a temporary basis, the United States has advocated for a new, broader framework that would include China, citing its rapidly expanding and non-transparent nuclear program. Beijing has consistently rejected participation, stating its arsenal remains far smaller than those of Washington and Moscow and that it will not engage in negotiations until its strategic parity is achieved.
US officials argue that a bilateral US-Russia agreement is insufficient given China’s nuclear buildup and have alleged that Beijing has conducted covert nuclear testing, claims China denies. The absence of any treaty verifications has raised concerns about the stability of the global nuclear order and the potential for miscalculation.
Despite the treaty’s termination, US and Russian military leaders have agreed to reestablish direct dialogue, a step that raises some optimism for future diplomatic engagement. This cautious hope stems from a shared understanding that an unconstrained arms race between the two superpowers would be destabilizing and costly.
The immediate task for diplomats is to agree on a format and timeline for substantive negotiations. The historical precedent of nearly six decades of negotiated arms control contrasts sharply with the current vacuum, underscoring the significance of restoring a verifiable constraints regime. The discussions will be closely watched by allies and non-nuclear states alike, as their outcome will directly impact global security dynamics and efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation. The absence of a successor agreement leaves the world without a key pillar of strategic stability for the first time since the Cold War era.
