A senior figure in Nigeria’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) has asserted that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) can only secure victory in the 2027 general elections if the contest remains confined to the established political class, warning that a broad-based popular revolt would lead to its defeat.
Adewole Adebayo, a prominent SDP chieftain and the party’s former presidential candidate, made the declaration during an appearance on the ‘Hard Copy’ programme on Channels Television. He directly challenged the re-electability of President Bola Tinubu and the APC administration, framing the upcoming election as a pivotal choice for Nigerian voters.
“If it is a politicians’ election, the APC is going to win,” Adebayo stated. “But if it’s a people’s election, they will lose, and we, the SDP are going to win.” He contended that the APC’s current success is sustainable only within the existing ecosystem of political elites, not with the wider electorate.
The SDP figure declared President Tinubu, the APC, and all incumbent officeholders as fundamentally “beatable.” His message called for a foundational shift in Nigerian politics. “Now it is a challenge to the people to now raise a new political class, and that job is not easy to do, but it is a necessary job to do, because we are going to replace them with a new set of leadership,” he said.
Adebayo’s projection positions the SDP, historically a minor party compared to the dominant APC and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as the standard-bearer for a hypothetical grassroots movement. His analysis hinges on a perceived disconnect between the governing party and public sentiment, suggesting that widespread voter frustration could override traditional incumbency advantages and party machinery.
The 2027 elections are still over three years away, but political strategising and narratives are already forming. Adebayo’s argument underscores a recurring theme in Nigerian democracy: the tension between entrenched political interests and demands for accountability and change from the populace. His confidence in an SDP victory rests on a definition of the election as a referendum on the entire political establishment, rather than a standard contest between known parties.
The significance of this statement lies in its explicit call for the dismantling of the current political order. For the SDP, a party with limited recent electoral success, transforming this anti-incumbent sentiment into a viable national campaign represents a formidable organisational challenge. The coming years will test whether the narrative of a “people’s election” gains traction over the realities of a “politicians’ election,” where resource control and party structures typically hold decisive influence.
