Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports to China surged to a record 1.86 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, a 46% year-on-year increase that pushed Moscow past Saudi Arabia as Beijing’s top supplier, according to trading data. The shift underscores a broader realignment in global energy trade driven by Western sanctions and strategic Chinese demand.
The volume, reported by energy analytics firm Kpler, exceeded Saudi Arabia’s seaborne shipments of approximately 1.2 million bpd for the month. This marks a significant change, as Riyadh has long been China’s primary seaborne crude supplier. Over the past decade, China’s total energy imports have more than doubled, while imports from Russia have risen more than fourfold, noted Aleksandr Daniltsev, Director of the Trade Policy Institute at the Higher School of Economics.
Russia has redirected the majority of its energy exports to Asian markets, particularly China and India, following the imposition of Western sanctions over its actions in Ukraine. However, Indian imports have weakened recently due to sanctions pressure and trade dynamics, creating space for expanded Chinese purchases. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened secondary sanctions and tariffs on nations buying Russian oil, though he recently lifted a 25% tariff on India after New Delhi indicated it would curb purchases.
Daniltsev stated that physical volumes of Russian crude flowing to China are “increasing steadily.” He cautioned that price fluctuations will affect the import value, and China’s long-term strategy of diversifying energy sources and developing low-carbon technologies may eventually limit growth. “But the overall trend will remain upward,” he added.
China is also reportedly increasing imports of Russia’s Urals crude grade to levels unseen since mid-2023. Traders note that despite sanctions, Russia is exporting record volumes to its largest buyer, while China secures discounted supply with limited additional risk.
Geopolitical factors could further boost Russia’s role. Daniltsev suggested that if Middle East tensions escalate—for instance, involving Iran, another key Chinese supplier—Moscow’s importance as an energy partner may rise.
The deepening energy ties between Moscow and Beijing are reshaping Asian oil markets. Concurrently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that as the U.S. creates “artificial barriers” to trade, BRICS nations must develop new, secure financial and economic channels. This evolving dynamic highlights how sanctions have redrawn energy trade routes, cementing Russia’s position as a leading supplier to China amid a shifting global order.
