Venezuela Oil Output Set for Dramatic US-Backed Increase

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has pledged a significant increase in Venezuelan oil production, describing it as part of a plan to strengthen economic ties across the Americas. Wright made the statement following meetings in Caracas with interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, marking the highest-level US diplomatic visit to Venezuela since the overthrow of former president Nicolás Maduro in early January.

Wright stated the US-Venezuela relationship was “at a pivot in history,” forecasting a “dramatic turn” in bilateral ties and business conditions. He emphasized President Donald Trump’s “passionate commitment” to transforming the partnership. Rodríguez expressed support for a “long-term productive partnership” beneficial to both nations. This thaw follows Trump’s recognition of Rodríguez’s government, contingent on cooperation regarding oil resources and political reforms.

The focus on oil is central to the new relationship. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, over 303 billion barrels, yet its production has collapsed. After years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and US sanctions, the country produced just one percent of the world’s total crude in 2024. Although production has recovered slightly to about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025—up from a low of 360,000 in 2020—it remains far below the 3.0 million bpd peak of two decades ago.

Wright declared the US oil embargo, in place since 2019, “essentially over.” Last month, a first sanctioned oil sale generated $500 million for Venezuela. The US now aims for US oil majors to rebuild Venezuela’s sector, with output increases shared between the nations. Wright called for a “dramatic increase” in oil, gas, and electricity production to improve Venezuelan wages and living standards.

This diplomatic shift is accompanied by swift changes in Caracas. Rodríguez’s government has opened the nationalized oil industry to private investment and is considering an amnesty bill for political prisoners. However, substantial challenges persist. Attracting investment requires overcoming ongoing political instability, security risks, and the need for massive infrastructure rehabilitation.

The US push aims to rapidly harness Venezuela’s reserves to boost hemispheric energy security and trade. Success depends on maintaining stable political conditions and attracting the billions in investment needed to restore production capacity. The outcome could significantly impact global oil markets and redefine US influence in Latin America.

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