Nigeria’s headline inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, a slight decline from 15.15 per cent in December, official data shows. The figure contradicts earlier analyst predictions of a rise toward 19 per cent and marks a sustained slowdown in consumer price pressures.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in the prior month, representing a month-on-month deflation of 2.88 per cent. This contrasts with a 0.54 per cent increase in December. On an annual basis, inflation remains significantly lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.
The decline was driven primarily by reductions in food prices. Food inflation slowed dramatically to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January, down from 29.63 per cent a year earlier. Month-on-month, food prices fell by 6.02 per cent. The NBS attributed this to cheaper staples including water yam, eggs, groundnut oil, palm oil, and grains. The average annual food inflation for the past twelve months also dropped to 20.29 per cent from 38.47 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, decelerated to 17.72 per cent year-on-year from 25.27 per cent in January 2025. Month-on-month, core prices declined by 1.69 per cent. The twelve-month average core rate stood at 22.84 per cent.
Regional disparities persisted. Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi and the Federal Capital Territory. Ebonyi, Katsina and Imo reported the lowest rates. Month-on-month, Imo and Ondo saw the smallest increases, while Cross River, Ogun and Kogi experienced the sharpest declines.
Urban inflation was 15.36 per cent year-on-year and fell by 2.72 per cent month-on-month. Rural inflation stood at 14.44 per cent annually, with a steeper monthly decline of 3.29 per cent. The twelve-month averages were 22.30 per cent for urban and 21.03 per cent for rural areas.
The data suggests a broad-based easing of price pressures, particularly in the critical food sector. However, inflation rates remain elevated in absolute terms and vary widely across states, highlighting ongoing regional economic differences. The continued deceleration, especially in food prices, may influence monetary policy considerations as the federal government seeks to stabilise the economy.
