Nigeria’s inflation rate edged down to 15.1 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday. The marginal decline follows the statistic agency’s switch to a revised consumer price index (CPI) methodology, a change it states offers a more accurate reflection of current household expenditure patterns and price movements across the economy.
The new CPI framework, implemented with the December 2025 data release, updates the basket of goods and services and revises the weighting to better capture shifting consumer behaviour. This methodological shift means the January figure is not directly comparable to earlier periods under the old system, though the NBS indicates the trend shows a modest easing of price pressures. Headline inflation, which measures the average change over time in prices paid by consumers for a market basket of goods and services, remains persistently elevated despite the slight dip.
The data arrives ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for February 23-24, 2026. The committee, responsible for setting the monetary policy rate (MPR), closely monitors inflation trends to calibrate interest rates. High inflation has been a primary concern for the CBN, which has maintained a restrictive monetary stance to anchor expectations and bring price growth toward its single-digit target. The January outcome, though showing a tentative slowdown, still underscores the challenge of taming entrenched inflation, which has remained above 15 per cent for over two years.
Analysts suggest the MPC will scrutinise the new series to assess whether the slight moderation represents a sustainable downward trajectory or a temporary fluctuation. Factors such as exchange rate stability, food prices—often volatile due to seasonal harvests—and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, will be critical in their deliberations. The CBN’s decision will signal its policy outlook for the first quarter and have significant implications for borrowing costs, business planning, and household budgets.
The persistence of high inflation continues to strain purchasing power and complicates the federal government’s economic diversification agenda. While global commodity prices have shown some relief, domestic structural issues, including supply chain constraints and currency pressures, continue to feed price increases. The NBS’s methodological update aims to improve data reliability for policymakers and investors, but the underlying inflation dynamics remain a central risk to Nigeria’s growth forecast. The forthcoming MPC decision will be closely watched for indications on the pace and durability of any disinflation.
