Nigeria’s food inflation rate fell to 8.89 percent in January 2026, marking the first time it has dropped to single digits since 2015, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The broader headline inflation also moderated to 10.10 percent for the same period, down from 29.63 percent in January 2025 and 10.84 percent in December 2025.
The NBS attributed the decline to reduced prices for key staples including yam, eggs, maize, beans, palm oil, cassava, beef, and tomatoes. This disinflation trend has prompted cautious assessment from economic analysts. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), a leading policy think-tank, welcomed the development but emphasized that policy responses must remain firmly anchored to comprehensive data.
“The disinflation trend creates room for cautious and gradual monetary easing,” stated Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of CPPE. “However, this must remain data-driven given that core inflation and twelve-month average inflation remain elevated.” Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, is closely watched by the Central Bank of Nigeria as a gauge of underlying price pressures. Yusuf’s comments highlight the delicate balance policymakers face.
While lower food prices directly benefit urban consumers by reducing household expenditure on essentials, Yusuf flagged a significant counterpoint. “While declining food prices benefit consumers, they also pose risks for farm incomes and rural economic stability,” he noted. Reduced returns for farmers and agricultural producers could dampen investment in the sector and threaten livelihoods in Nigeria’s predominantly rural economy.
The January 2026 figures represent a notable turnaround in a country that has wrestled with high inflation for years. The drop follows periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Central Bank and improved foreign exchange market stability, which helped ease cost-push pressures. However, the persistence of elevated core and average inflation underscores that underlying price pressures have not been fully tamed.
For international observers, the data illustrates the complex transmission mechanisms of inflation control in a major African economy. The immediate impact is a relief for cost-of-living pressures, but the structural challenge of sustaining growth in the agricultural sector amid falling commodity prices remains a critical policy consideration. The Central Bank’s next moves on interest rates will likely hinge on whether the moderation in food prices is sustained and if core inflation shows a more pronounced and consistent downward trajectory in the coming months.
