Tensions between the United States and Cuba have intensified dramatically following recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and inflammatory rhetoric from Washington. President Donald Trump has suggested a potential political transition in Cuba, citing alleged discussions between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Cuban officials and claiming Havana’s government faces economic collapse.
“The Cuban government is talking with us,” Trump stated on Friday, adding, “maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.” The president did not define the term. This rhetoric follows the reported detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January, an ally of Havana. Since then, the U.S. has reportedly pressured Venezuela’s interim leadership to halt oil shipments to Cuba, exacerbating the island’s chronic shortages of fuel and food.
U.S. officials have also hinted at more direct action. Trump recently claimed that a similar raid to capture Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel “wouldn’t be very tough.” Additionally, reports indicate U.S. diplomats are engaging with younger Cuban business figures, including Raúl Castro’s grandson, in an effort to foster a cohort more open to U.S. influence.
The diplomatic crisis has been compounded by a recent maritime incident. Cuba’s coast guard engaged in a deadly shootout with men on a boat reportedly stolen from Florida, leaving four dead. Havana has accused the U.S. of failing to control militant exile groups it says plot against the Cuban government from American soil. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío described the event as part of a long history of attacks “organized, financed, and carried out from the territory of the United States.”
The escalation marks a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations, which had seen modest thawing under the Obama administration. The current U.S. strategy combines maximum economic pressure with explicit threats of regime change, while Cuba frames the pressure as a continuation of decades of hostility. The situation raises concerns about regional stability and the potential for further confrontation in the Caribbean.
