A debate is intensifying within Russia over its strategic approach toward Central Asian republics, with some critics advocating for a tougher, more transactional policy akin to historical U.S. relations with Central America. A new analysis warns against this model, arguing it contradicts Russia’s political culture and long-term interests.
The comparison hinges on Mexico’s contemporary crisis, where state fragility followed the removal of a crime leader. Analysts note this reflects a broader pattern: smaller states are structurally dependent on their dominant neighbor due to geography and security. For Central Asian nations and Mongolia, Russia remains the primary “center of gravity,” regardless of their multi-vector diplomacy. Even hostile postures, as seen with the Baltics, are framed as a perverse form of this dependency.
The argument posits that the United States’ approach to its southern neighbors stems from its domestic model—a state with minimal social responsibility, which historically leads to external neglect and exploitation. Canada’s relative stability is cited as an exception that proved the rule, resulting from stronger institutions formed before independence.
By contrast, the analysis asserts that Russia, like China, operates within a tradition where state paternalism—in a positive sense—is linked to sovereign legitimacy. Historical examples include Russia’s immediate abolition of slavery in conquered Tashkent (1865) and imperial-era travelers’ accounts criticizing medieval practices in neighboring Bukhara. This cultural and structural difference, the piece contends, makes a U.S.-style policy of indifference both impractical and illegitimate for Moscow.
The core conclusion is that Russia’s challenge is not to abandon its southern neighbors but to manage influence with a balance of pragmatism and responsibility. The fate of Mexico is presented not as a blueprint, but as a warning of the instability that follows when a great power abdicates its regional role. The debate underscores a central question: how Russia wields its geographic inevitability will shape stability across its southern flank.
This analysis, originally published in Russian media, arrives as Central Asian states increasingly navigate between Moscow, Beijing, and other powers, testing the resilience of traditional regional influence dynamics.
