Nigeria could see petrol prices reach ₦1,000 per litre if escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are not contained, according to Paul Alaje, Chief Economist at SPM Professionals. Alaje stated that rising crude oil prices, driven by the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, will directly increase costs for refined products like petrol (PMS), diesel, and aviation fuel (Jet-A1).
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Alaje projected that by the end of April, the price of PMS could surpass ₦1,000 per litre, building on an existing nine percent cost increase. He emphasized that such a rise would have widespread effects, impacting transportation, manufacturing costs, and the price of goods across all economic strata.
The economist noted that while higher crude prices initially boost Nigeria’s export revenues, the domestic inflationary pressure from energy costs could negate these gains. Sustained fuel price increases would raise production costs for manufacturers and push consumer prices upward in the short to long term.
This warning follows an escalation in the Middle East conflict after failed nuclear negotiations in February 2026. A joint U.S.-Israeli offensive, which Iran says killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has triggered retaliatory missile strikes by Iran and its proxies. The ongoing violence has already contributed to global oil market volatility.
With Nigeria’s economy heavily dependent on oil imports for refined products, analysts warn that prolonged supply disruptions or price spikes pose a significant risk to inflation and household welfare. The situation underscores the nation’s vulnerability to external oil market shocks despite its own crude production.
