Nepal votes in a general election on March 5, a pivotal contest shaped by the violent protests that ousted Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government six months ago. Nearly 19 million voters will elect a 275-member parliament amid deep political fragmentation, the rise of populist challengers, and heightened concerns about foreign interference.
The election follows the collapse of a power-sharing agreement between the two largest parties from the 2024 polls: the Nepali Congress and Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML). Under the deal, Oli was to lead for two years before handing power to Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba. Instead, mass protests in September 2025—triggered by a social media ban but fueled by anger over economic stagnation and corruption—turned deadly, leaving 77 dead and over 2,000 injured. Oli resigned, and an interim government led by former chief justice Sushila Karki took charge.
The upheaval accelerated the breakdown of traditional political forces. Most significantly, the Nepali Congress has formally split. A faction led by General Secretary Gagan Thapa, recognized by the Election Commission as the official party, broke away in January 2026. The 49-year-old Thapa is now a prime ministerial candidate, while five-time former PM Deuba, 79, is not contesting after being injured in the September violence. Senior Congress leader Shekhar Koirala alleged the split resulted from a “foreign conspiracy” aimed at weakening the party.
Oli, meanwhile, was re-elected as CPN-UML president in December and is contesting the polls. He has claimed the September protests were “organized” and noted warnings from Sri Lanka and Bangladesh about similar unrest, suggesting an external plot to destabilize Nepal.
The election features a crowded field of new and emerging parties aggressively campaigning on anti-establishment platforms. Prominent populist figures include rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah (Balen), nominated by the Rastriya Swotantra Party Nepal and contesting from Oli’s constituency; former journalist Rabi Lamichhane; and Kulman Ghising, the technocrat credited with ending Nepal’s load-shedding crisis. Political analyst Puranjan Acharya notes these candidates, many lacking clear ideology, are drawing voters with populist narratives that exploit disillusionment with traditional parties.
UML leader Pradeep Gyawali warned that the post-protest environment has created space for dangerous populism. The concerns extend beyond domestic politics. Former ambassador Nilambar Acharya cautioned that new political centres may have stronger international than national orientations, potentially altering Nepal’s foreign policy balance between neighbours India and China. He highlighted growing Western visibility and influence in the country, underscoring Nepal’s sensitive geopolitical position.
The outcome will determine whether Nepal’s democracy rebounds through renewed traditional coalitions or undergoes a deeper realignment toward fragmented, populist rule. The vote is seen as a test of the nation’s ability to address economic grievances while navigating intense internal division and external pressures, with consequences for its stability and foreign relations for years to come.
