The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which dominated Nigerian politics for 16 years following the return to democracy in 1999, has experienced a dramatic collapse, now controlling only two of the country’s 36 states. Once boasting control of 30 states and the presidency, the party’s decline is attributed to severe internal crises, strategic missteps, and a wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The PDP’s historical strength was formidable. It produced presidents, governors, and legislative leaders, and its then-National Chairman, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, famously declared the party would rule Nigeria for 60 years. However, its fortunes began to wane with the emergence of the APC in 2013. The party’s trajectory worsened dramatically ahead of the 2023 general election.
A pivotal crisis erupted over the zoning of the presidential ticket. An initial agreement to back a southern candidate was abandoned when northern hopefuls, including Atiku Abubakar, insisted on an open contest. A subsequent arrangement that would have required National Chairman Dr. Iyorchia Ayu to step down for a southerner if a northern candidate won was not honoured after Abubakar secured the nomination. This sparked rebellion from the “G5” governors—Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Samuel Ortom (Benue), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu)—who argued that a consecutive northern presidency violated principles of rotation. They withheld support for Abubakar, who instead selected Governor Patrick Okowa as his running mate, bypassing Wike despite a party committee’s recommendation.
Following the APC’s presidential victory, the G5’s open support for Bola Tinubu fractured the party further. Wike became a minister in the APC government, while Makinde distanced himself from Tinubu. The two now lead rival PDP factions. The internal strife has prompted key figures like Abubakar, former Senate President David Mark, and others to leave, with some forming a new coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) platform.
The party’s legal standing is also precarious. A 2025 national convention in Ibadan, which produced rival leadership slates, was nullified by courts, a decision recently upheld by the Court of Appeal. This legal uncertainty compounds the PDP’s woes, with further reports of key leaders like Makinde and Bala Mohammed exploring alliances with the ADC.
Political analysts link the downfall to a lack of internal democracy, weak ideology, and elite power struggles. The failure to manage the 2023 zoning issue and subsequent rebellion shattered cohesion. From a peak of 30 states, the PDP now holds only Oyo and Bauchi, with six governors defecting since 2023, including Zamfara’s Dauda Lawal, who cited internal crisis as his reason.
The PDP’s implosion serves as a stark warning for the APC, the primary beneficiary of its decline. To avoid a similar fate, analysts assert the ruling party must prioritize unity and democratic internal processes. For now, the PDP’s future hinges on resolving its factional disputes and legal battles, a challenge that appears increasingly insurmountable.
