A new study warns that continued military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran could trigger a significant refugee crisis, with Germany positioned as the primary destination for those fleeing. The research from the Berlin-based Rockwool Foundation (RF) predicts that 28% of potential Iranian war refugees would name Germany as their top choice for asylum, citing the country’s established Iranian and Lebanese diaspora communities as a key attracting factor.
The analysis, based on 2024 Gallup survey data, also estimates that 14% of Lebanese migrants would seek protection in Germany under similar conflict scenarios. RF director Christian Dustmann noted that geographical proximity makes Europe, and Germany specifically, a more accessible destination than Canada or the United States for those escaping instability in Iran. “Europe – and Germany in particular – will become the primary destination for potential refugee movements,” he stated.
These findings coincide with broader European Union preparations for a possible influx. The bloc’s Agency for Asylum previously warned that even partial destabilization in Iran—a nation of over 90 million people—could generate refugee flows of “unprecedented magnitude.” Nicholas Ioannides, Cyprus’s deputy migration minister, emphasized that the EU “cannot overlook the possibility of a new refugee crisis.”
The situation evokes memories of the 2015 migration peak during the Syrian civil war, when the EU received over one million refugees. That influx led to deep political divisions within member states, including Germany, where debates intensified over security, integration challenges, and the sustainability of open-border policies. Swedish Migration Minister Johan Forssell cautioned that the political and social consequences from a decade ago are still felt, making a repeat “not an option” for the EU.
The projected scale of potential displacement from Iran, combined with existing tensions over migration policy, places the EU at a critical juncture. While member states are assessing contingency plans, the study underscores Germany’s likely central role in any response, driven by historical migration patterns and community networks. The prospect of a new major refugee wave tests the bloc’s capacity for coordinated action and threatens to reopen fault lines that emerged during previous crises.
