Nigerians are confronting a steepening cost-of-living crisis as food inflation surged in February while fuel prices continued to climb nationwide, straining household budgets despite a marginal decline in overall headline inflation.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Monday showed food inflation accelerated to 12.12 percent in February, up from 8.89 percent in January. The rise was driven by increased prices for staples including beans, yam flour, cassava, and local vegetables. While the headline inflation rate edged down 0.04 percentage points to 15.06 percent, the monthly inflation rate rose sharply to 2.01 percent from -2.88 percent in January, indicating prices are increasing at a faster pace.
The surge in food costs compounds pressure from record-high fuel prices. Petrol costs have escalated to between N1,261 and N1,330 per liter following multiple hikes by Dangote Refinery and subsequent increases by other marketers. This follows price spikes linked to global oil market volatility after the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The fuel price increases have already triggered higher transportation fares across the country.
Economic analysts noted the data presents a complex picture. Economist Ayo Teriba suggested the February food inflation jump may reflect seasonal economic patterns following a quiet January, rather than a definitive new trend. He cautioned that the NBS’s recent data revisions add uncertainty, making it too early to determine if this marks the start of a new inflationary phase.
Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University argued the slight headline inflation decline offers no tangible relief, calling it a statistical nuance. He emphasized that rising food inflation is particularly damaging as food comprises the largest share of household expenditure for most Nigerians. “The change of 0.04 percentage points is too small to translate into any meaningful relief,” he said.
Oyedokun attributed persistent food inflation to structural challenges: high energy costs raising production and transport expenses, insecurity disrupting farming in key agricultural regions, and logistics failures causing significant post-harvest losses. He described the situation as cost-push inflation, where rising input costs are passed to consumers.
The parallel rise in food and fuel prices exacerbates hardship for ordinary Nigerians. Experts stress that sustainable solutions require coordinated policy action, including improving security in farming areas, investing in agricultural storage and transport infrastructure, and implementing targeted support for the food supply chain. With inflation remaining elevated and essential goods becoming less affordable, the economic pressure on households is expected to persist without significant structural interventions.
