Nigeria’s food inflation rate surged to 12.12 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, official data showed, erasing a brief period of single-digit price growth and renewing pressure on household budgets. The increase, from 8.89 per cent in January, represents a rise of 3.23 percentage points, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Monday.
The February figure pushed food inflation back into double digits after January’s sharp slowdown, which had marked the first single-digit reading in over a decade. On a monthly basis, food prices rose by 4.69 per cent. The NBS attributed the surge to increased prices of staple items including beans, carrots, cassava, yam flour, and cow peas, driven largely by high input costs for farmers.
Despite the monthly rebound, the annual food inflation rate remains significantly lower than a year earlier, when it stood at 26.98 per cent. The average annual food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 was 19.08 per cent, down from 37.40 per cent in the previous year.
State-level data revealed stark regional disparities. Kogi recorded the highest food inflation at 26.91 per cent year-on-year, while Katsina saw the lowest at 5.09 per cent. On a monthly basis, Bayelsa experienced the sharpest increase at 8.81 per cent, whereas Katsina reported a slight decline of 0.70 per cent.
The broader headline inflation rate, which measures the average change in prices of all goods and services, edged down marginally to 15.06 per cent in February from 15.10 per cent in January. The CPI rose to 130.0 from 127.4 the previous month. While the yearly headline rate remains elevated, it is 11.21 percentage points lower than the 26.27 per cent recorded in February 2025.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed the most to the headline index at 6.03 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation (1.95 points) and transport (1.61 points). Urban inflation stood at 15.53 per cent year-on-year, higher than rural inflation at 13.93 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, declined annually to 15.88 per cent from 25.66 per cent a year earlier but rose monthly to 0.89 per cent.
Economists and business groups warned that the marginal easing offers little practical relief. Dr. Femi Egbesola of the Association of Small Business Owners noted that high food and energy costs continue to squeeze businesses and households. “Prices continue to go higher, particularly with the recent increase in fuel prices,” he said, citing global energy tensions as a looming risk for March.
Dr. Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise described the headline drop as “statistically insignificant,” emphasising that the return of food inflation to double digits highlights persistent structural issues like insecurity and logistics constraints. “Productivity levels are still low,” he stated, adding that energy cost spikes threaten to reverse gains.
The report underscores volatile food markets despite a longer-term trend of moderating price growth. Farmers have previously threatened to skip the planting season due to squeezed profit margins, pointing to deep-seated challenges in the agricultural value chain. While annual comparisons show improvement from 2025’s crisis levels, the monthly resurgence in food and core inflation suggests price pressures remain a critical concern for Nigeria’s economy and household welfare.
