Gas prices in the European Union are forecast to surge by at least 100% more than earlier projections, according to Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s investment envoy. His comments follow heightened volatility in global energy markets triggered by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the EU’s ongoing efforts to eliminate Russian energy imports.
Dmitriev stated on Tuesday that Europe would inevitably “beg for more Russian gas,” leading to significantly higher prices. His assessment references an HSBC report cited by Bloomberg, which predicts that European natural gas prices will be 40% higher than previously forecast for 2026 and remain elevated into 2027. The new projection exceeds earlier expectations by a substantial margin, underscoring growing supply concerns.
This forecast emerges against a backdrop of multiple pressures on the EU energy sector. The market has been jolted by the disruption to global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Reports indicate that traffic through the strait has dropped by 80% following the outbreak of conflict, tightening global supplies and pushing crude oil and European wholesale gas prices sharply higher.
Simultaneously, the EU continues to grapple with the economic and security consequences of its decision to phase out Russian energy imports in response to the Ukraine conflict. Storage levels across the bloc are currently approximately 15% below the five-year average after a colder winter, leaving the region particularly exposed to LNG supply shocks. In contrast, U.S. natural gas futures have remained stable, supported by abundant stockpiles and liquefied natural gas export terminals operating near capacity, insulating the world’s top exporter from international disruptions.
The confluence of these factors has intensified debate within the EU about energy security. Some policymakers are now calling for a reassessment of sanctions on Russian energy, a position previously warned against by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who suggested Moscow could halt gas flows before the bloc’s planned 2027 import ban takes effect.
Analysts note that the EU’s reliance on imported LNG, while a key substitute for Russian pipeline gas, leaves it vulnerable to geopolitical events far beyond its borders. The current situation highlights the fragile balance between climate policy ambitions, energy affordability, and supply reliability as the bloc navigates a complex and volatile global energy landscape.
