A sharp escalation in Middle East tensions has disrupted a vital oil shipping route, exposing Africa’s heavy reliance on imported fuel and triggering warnings of severe shortages across the continent.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global energy shipments, has seen traffic slow dramatically amid the conflict involving Iran. This has put at risk approximately 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products typically destined for Africa from the Middle East, according to the International Energy Agency.
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows a near-total collapse in shipments. Loads fell from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February—a 68.4 per cent drop—before plunging to zero in March. The complete loss of this quarterly volume within three months underscores the acute sensitivity of Africa’s fuel supply chain to geopolitical shocks.
The disruption has forced governments to scramble for alternative sources, competing in a tightening global market where wealthier nations may have greater purchasing power. “We are looking everywhere for supply options,” said Jacob Mbele, Director-General at South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources. “We are comfortable that in the coming weeks or so, we are safe, but the situation is fluid; it changes every day.”
The crisis highlights long-standing structural weaknesses in Africa’s energy system. A prevailing dependence on imported refined products stems from years of refinery closures and underinvestment. The continent, which produces about seven per cent of the world’s crude oil, has lost roughly a third of its refining capacity over the past two decades.
East African nations are among the most exposed. Kenya, which imports all its daily consumption of about 100,000 barrels, maintains just 21 days of fuel stock. Martin Chomba, Chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, reported that suppliers are rationing products and rural distributors face stock-outs. Ethiopia has publicly urged citizens to reduce consumption to prioritise essential services.
Meanwhile, global trade flows are realigning. Cargoes originally for Europe and Africa are being diverted to Asia, where demand and prices are stronger. Russian diesel exports to West Africa have risen sharply to fill part of the gap, with 480,000 metric tonnes arriving in February and another 446,000 expected in March.
Nigeria presents a partial exception, thanks to the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, which began operating in 2024. The facility is gradually meeting most of the country’s estimated 493,000-barrels-per-day demand and may soon export surplus. However, the refinery still relies on imported crude, reflecting persistent feedstock challenges.
Energy analysts argue the situation demonstrates a critical vulnerability: global conflicts can rapidly translate into domestic economic pressure for import-dependent nations. They stress that without accelerated investment in domestic refining and diversified supply chains, Africa remains susceptible to recurrent fuel security shocks as geopolitical tensions reshape global trade patterns.
