A dramatic collapse in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues nearly a month after Iranian forces blocked the vital Middle East waterway, with only a minimal number of vessels, predominantly Iranian, making the journey.
Shipping analytics reveal a 95% reduction in crossings compared to peacetime levels. From March 1 to 19, just 114 commodity carriers transited the 167-kilometre strait, according to data from Kpler. Of these, 69 were oil tankers, with more than half loaded and primarily heading east. While bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships lead the minimal traffic, there has been a slight recent increase in liquefied natural gas carriers.
The vast majority of vessels passing through are either owned or flagged by Iran. Greek-owned ships accounted for 18% of recent crossings, with Chinese ships at 10%. “Although Iran is continuing to control the Strait and export its own oil, everything else is largely still at a standstill,” noted Richard Meade, editor of Lloyd’s List.
An analysis by Agence France-Presse found that approximately one-third of all ships transiting since the conflict began on February 28 are subject to sanctions by the US, EU, or UK. Among oil and gas tankers, more than half are sanctioned. Since mid-March, westbound traffic has been dominated entirely by what analysts describe as the “shadow fleet,” gas carriers, and tankers.
The oil that does move is overwhelmingly Iranian, with JPMorgan analysts reporting that 98% of observable oil traffic is from Iran, averaging 1.3 million barrels per day in early March. The pre-war flow was nearly five million barrels daily. The destination for this oil is almost exclusively Asia, with China receiving over one million barrels per day from the strait. There are indications Chinese authorities are developing plans for their large tankers trapped in the region.
Some Indian and Pakistani vessels are also transiting, reportedly with Iranian approval and closer to the Iranian coastline. Multiple governments, including India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Malaysia, are in direct talks with Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards to coordinate safe passage.
In response to the blockade, the shipping industry is accelerating the use of alternative corridors. Major firm CMA CGM is rerouting freight across Gulf countries by land. Marine intelligence group Windward reported a 280% surge in traffic through Africa’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait and a 70% increase via the Suez Canal, signalling a rapid global rebalancing of maritime trade routes away from the Persian Gulf.
The persistent closure of the strait—a chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes—underscores a profound shift in global energy logistics, forcing exporters and importers to adopt longer, costlier voyages and highlighting the strait’s enduring strategic vulnerability.
