Nigeria’s current account surplus narrowed significantly in 2025, even as key sectors like the new Dangote Refinery and foreign direct investment showed strong performance, according to provisional Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data.
The current account, which measures the net trade in goods and services and primary income, fell by 26.2 per cent to $14.04 billion from $19.03 billion in 2024. The decline was driven primarily by a 14.4 per cent drop in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion, despite a 21.4 per cent surge in gas exports to $10.51 billion.
A major structural shift came from the Dangote Refinery’s operations. While boosting the Goods Account to a higher surplus of $14.51 billion, the refinery’s crude oil imports—totaling $3.74 billion—and a 28.9 per cent reduction in fuel imports (to $10.00 billion) altered trade flows. Non-oil imports also rose by 13.6 per cent to $29.24 billion.
The financial account reversed from a net lending position of $9.65 billion in 2024 to net borrowing of $1.69 billion in 2025. This followed a 48.3 per cent crash in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows to $8.04 billion. Conversely, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows surged 149.1 per cent to $4.01 billion, suggesting renewed long-term investor confidence, particularly in equity and reinvested earnings.
Pressures mounted from the services and primary income accounts. The services deficit widened to $14.58 billion due to higher spending on transport, travel, and insurance. Net out-payments in primary income surged 60.9 per cent to $9.09 billion, driven by increased dividends and interest payments to non-resident investors.
Despite the current account contraction, Nigeria’s external reserves rose 13.8 per cent to $45.75 billion, providing a stronger buffer against external shocks. The CBN noted that while the 2025 surplus was lower than 2024, it remained well above the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023.
The data highlights a mixed picture: the economy is benefiting from refined petroleum exports and attracting long-term investment, while facing headwinds from lower oil export revenue, higher import bills, and volatile portfolio flows. The growth in reserves offers stability amid these ongoing structural adjustments in trade and investment balances.
