Nigeria’s trade balance saw significant structural shifts in 2025, as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s operations led to substantial crude oil imports even as the country reduced its reliance on finished fuel imports, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Balance of Payments report.
The data reveals that the refinery imported crude oil worth $3.74 billion during the year. This move occurred despite Nigeria being a crude oil-producing nation and aligns with the federal government’s “naira-for-crude” policy aimed at prioritising domestic supply to local refineries. The imports contributed to a notable decline in Nigeria’s crude oil exports, which fell 14.41 per cent to $31.54 billion from $36.85 billion in 2024.
A key outcome was a sharp reduction in refined petroleum product imports, which dropped 28.88 per cent to $10.00 billion from $14.06 billion, as the refinery’s output displaced foreign supplies. This helped the broader goods account register a surplus of $14.51 billion, up from $13.17 billion in 2024. The CBN credited this stronger surplus to “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery” alongside higher gas exports.
However, the gains were partially offset by rising non-oil imports, which increased 13.60 per cent to $29.24 billion, reflecting sustained consumer demand. Furthermore, Nigeria’s current account surplus narrowed to $14.04 billion in 2025 from $19.03 billion the previous year. The CBN attributed this partly to the new oil trade dynamics, including crude imports for domestic processing.
Pressure on the current account emerged from increased outflows. Net service payments rose to $14.58 billion from $13.36 billion, driven by higher spending on transport, travel, and insurance. Net primary income outflows surged 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to greater dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. Secondary income inflows, including remittances, dipped slightly to $23.20 billion.
The data underscores a paradox: while the Dangote Refinery is reducing Nigeria’s fuel import bill and boosting refined product exports, it has also necessitated crude oil imports and heightened income outflows. This structural shift in trade flows highlights the complex economic adjustments accompanying the refinery’s ramp-up, with implications for the country’s external balances and foreign exchange earnings going forward.
