Kenya’s Finance Minister John Mbadi has defended a new law establishing a National Infrastructure Fund, asserting it will finance projects without increasing debt or taxes. However, his public justification contained several claims that are inconsistent with official data, raising questions about the government’s fiscal narrative.
Speaking at a presidential signing on March 9, 2026, Mbadi argued that shrinking fiscal space and high debt repayments necessitated the alternative financing model. The law, already challenged in court, aims to fund ports, highways, power, and irrigation. Analysts have also flagged potential corruption risks.
In his defense, Mbadi made specific economic assertions. On national debt, he stated the public debt-to-GDP ratio is “approximately around 67%.” This aligns with Treasury data, which reported the ratio at 67.5% in December 2025, down from 68.1% in 2021.
His claim that “debt service obligations consume more than half of ordinary revenue” is accurate in recent years but presented as a current, fixed figure. Official projections, however, show significant variance. A September 2025 debt report projected the ratio would reach 73.7% in 2026/27. A later budget policy statement, signed by Mbadi in February 2026, estimated revenue at KSh2.9 trillion and debt service at KSh1.54 trillion—a 53% share. Neither matches his cited 48.7% figure. More critically, data confirms the ratio exceeded 50% in 2022/23 (at 58.9%) and has remained above that threshold since, with projections showing it staying above 50% for the next three fiscal years. This context was omitted.
On education, Mbadi claimed the sector receives “close to 27% of our total expenditure.” This figure, however, only calculates education spending against the “ministries, agencies and departments” budget stream, which constitutes 54% of total expenditure. When measured against the full national budget—which includes large, non-discretionary allocations like debt repayment—education’s share is approximately 16.4%, consistent with his own budget speech figures. The 27% statistic therefore excludes nearly half of all government spending from its denominator, substantially overstating the sector’s budget priority.
Regarding energy, Mbadi noted current generation is “just well over 3,000 megawatts.” Official data from the national statistics agency and energy regulator confirms installed capacity is around 3,200 MW, with effective capacity near 3,100 MW. Peak demand in December 2025 was 2,439 MW. He then stated Kenya “needs” 10,000 MW of electricity, a target first pledged in a 2013 manifesto. While the Energy Ministry’s 2025-2030 plan targets 5,952 MW of renewable capacity by 2030, the 10,000 MW figure represents a long-term political ambition, not a documented near-term demand forecast. This framing conflates aspirational goals with immediate grid requirements.
The minister’s defense of the Infrastructure Fund thus rests on a mixture of accurate baseline data and selectively framed or outdated projections. The legislation proceeds amid legal scrutiny and debate over fiscal management, where precise communication of public finances remains a critical point of contention.
