Nigerians are facing heightened economic pressure as food inflation accelerated sharply in February, even as overall inflation dipped marginally, while fuel prices reached unprecedented levels. The dual crisis of rising food and fuel costs underscores persistent challenges in the country’s cost-of-living landscape.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that food inflation surged to 12.12% in February 2026, up from 8.89% in January. The bureau attributed this increase to higher prices for staples including beans, yam flour, cassava, and local vegetables. Simultaneously, the headline inflation rate inched down by 0.04 percentage points to 15.06%, though monthly price growth accelerated to 2.01% from a negative reading in January.
The surge in food costs coincides with a dramatic climb in fuel prices. Petrol rates have jumped to as high as N1,330 per liter, driven by volatile global crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and recent increases by the Dangote Refinery, which raised its gantry price to N1,175 per liter. This has triggered nationwide transport fare hikes and broader cost increases across the economy.
Economists offered differing interpretations of the food inflation spike. Ayo Teriba of Economic Associates suggested the rise may reflect seasonal patterns following a typical slowdown in January, noting that price movements early in the year are often volatile. He cautioned against drawing long-term conclusions from a single month’s data, especially given the NBS’s recent revisions to past inflation figures, which he said undermine data predictability.
In contrast, Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University argued that the marginal fall in headline inflation provides little tangible relief for households. He emphasized that food, which constitutes the largest share of family expenditure, is becoming more expensive, directly eroding purchasing power. Oyedokun linked the trend to structural issues including high energy costs, agricultural insecurity, and logistical bottlenecks, describing it as classic cost-push inflation where production expenses are passed to consumers.
He stressed that without targeted interventions—such as improving farm security, investing in storage and transport infrastructure, and providing sector-specific energy support—food prices may continue to rise independently of broader inflation trends. Both experts highlighted that the current dynamics indicate sustained hardship for ordinary Nigerians, with the situation demanding urgent policy focus on supply-side reforms and social protection.
The developments pose a significant challenge for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, particularly as the president undertakes a state visit to the United Kingdom. With inflation remaining high and essential goods becoming less affordable, the economic strain on low- and middle-income families is intensifying, setting a complex backdrop for national economic policy.
